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Monday, August 09, 2004

India's darkest days

Whenever I read about events in India in the late eighties and the early nineties, I am convinced that those were the worst times India has witnessed ever since we gained independence. Given the number of grave problems our country faced, it is nothing short of a miracle that not only did we survive intact, we went on to become one of the world's rising economic stars! This post is intended as a reminder of the tough times we came through - a reminder that at times we must pause to pat our backs for our collective achievements rather than just pointing fingers for whatever faults still remain.

Perhaps it all began with Indira Gandhi's assasination. She had ruled India for more than a decade with an iron hand. Her toughness was legendary, as was her talent for checkmating potential political challengers. Whatever be the goods and bads of her reign, one significant outcome of her over-arching dominance was that there was no leader capable enough to fill up the political vaccum created by her death. Consequently, the country's reins had to be handed over to Rajiv Gandhi who could at best be called a political amateur. Then followed prime ministers VP Singh and Chandrashekar who were also widely percieved to be weak-minded leaders. Such weakness and instability no doubt hampered our ability to respond to crises and emboldened India's enemies to launch attacks against us.

Another most unfortunate side-effect of Indira's assasination were the anti-Sikh riots that followed. Over the centuries, the brave Sikhs have time and again fought off invaders at India's western borders. Inspite of being a relatively small minority, they comprised a significant percentage of the Indian army. A fourth of the sixteen Param Vir Chakras awarded before '84 had been won by Sikhs. Not only as soldiers, Sikh and other Punjabi farmers contributed a handsome amount to India's GDP (Punjab was and is India's richest state). As a nation, we owe so much to the Sikhs. And instead of being grateful, we hunted them down like rabbits! Rajiv Gandhi, in his infamous words, justified the killings saying, "When a mighty tree falls, the earth around is bound to shake". Such insensitivity must have only added fuel to the fires of alienation and disenchantement that the ISI had sparked among the Sikhs. Punjab burned for years thereafter.

In 1986-87 came another tremendous blow to national security when Pakistan covertly turned nuclear. Rajiv Gandhi's advisors advised him to remind Pakistan of our conventional superiority by showcasing India's military might in an army exercise named Operation Brass Tacks. The exercise was held in Rajasthan, a few hundred kilometers from the India-Pak border, deployed 400,000 troops, was bigger than any NATO exercise ever and everything about it smacked of preparation for a future strike into Pakistan. In short, it was a mistake! Pakistan called India's bluff and isssued thinly veiled nuclear threats aimed at us. The tension reached unbearable levels and it was only after a hastily-arranged visit by General Zia-ul-Haq (purportedly for watching a cricket match!) that all-out war was averted. But the subcontinent's nuclear threshold was lowered for all time to come.

Come 1989 and two other major problems were waiting to pounce on a hapless India. Pakistan initiated the insurgency in Kashmir around that time. The first two three years of the Kashmir insurgency saw a brutal and violent campaign of ethnic cleansing in the Kashmir valley when some 600,000 Kashmiri Hindus were forced to flee from their homeland. Such was the scale of the violence in Jammu and Kashmir that President's Rule had to be imposed and the Army deployed to control the situation. The second problem was the youth protests against the Mandal Commission Report which recommended granting reservations to OBCs. Many students found their future jobs snatched away overnight and a number of them took to the streets. Some of them even undertook extreme steps like self-immolation. The youth of a nation is what drives it forward, and India's youth had lost all faith in the system and sat hopelessly dejected.

There was more to come. In 1991 India was plunged into its worst ever financial crisis. Our forex reserves fell below the critical billion dollar mark and the country was dangerously close to becoming bankrupt. While the crisis was precipitated by the rising oil prices during the Gulf War and lack of investor confidence given India's gloomy overall scenario, its roots lay in the faulty economic policies practised over the years by the previous Congress governments. (To the Congress' credit however, it later almost single-handedly lifted India out of its economic morass)

And then there was Ayodhya. Hindus and Muslims clashed in late '92 over the demolition of the Babri Masjid. Widespread riots ensued and left thousands dead. Mutual hatred between Hindus and Muslims peaked to insane levels and the country's population was hopelessly polarized along communal lines. The ISI also played its role to perfection and engineered the worst-ever terrorist attack on Indian soil - the Bombay blasts of 1993, to take revenge for the demolition of the mosque. Almost 250 people were killed within a span of hours and many more injured.

So there you have the full picture. A country caught between two potentially nation-breaking insurgencies, led by ineffective leaders, bordered by a malicious neighbor with an itchy nuclear finger, poor financial conditions, a disenchanted youth and widespread communal tension. A recipe for disaster isn't it? No sir! We overcame most of the troubles that came our way.

Today, Punjab is happily integrated with the rest of India. True, many Sikhs still bear huge suspicions - but would you fault them after what happened in '84?

Today, the situation in Kashmir is as close to normal as I ever recall. We have an elected government in place, tourism is picking up, filmmakers are returning. Even the notorious Special Operations Group which was commissioned to crush the insurgency in Kashmir has been disbanded. Though much still needs to be done to redress the wrongs committed against the Kashmiri Hindus, we can draw solace from the fact that atleast the level of violence in the state has come down markedly.

Today, the Indian economy is booming. Far from being disenchanted, our youth today are excited at the opportunities around them. People all over the world are beginning to get curious about cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad. Public statements nothwithstanding, no finance minister since Dr. Manmohan Singh has reversed the historic course of reforms Dr. Singh initiated. Our forex reserves stood at $118 billion the last time I checked. Our currency is strong. We successfully weathered the Asian meltdown of the late nineties.

In short, today, our country is stronger than it ever was in the last two decades. And we accomplished this in the face of an incessant stream of problems that mercilessly pounded India and its people. As an Indian, this makes me immensely proud. And more than that, this makes me immensely optimistic that given time, we shall overcome the seemingly insurmountable problems of today and become the greatest nation of tomorrow.

Jai Hind!

10 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

According to the new economic theory, the development of a country is not measured by the GDP/GNP. The reason why it is a poor indicator for measuring development are:
GNP/NI does not reflect the structure and distribution of income. Also social welfare, demographic factor, social welfare aspects are neglected. Hence new development index, called Human Deveolpment Index has been formulated. Scandinavian countries, who do not belong to the catergory of "developed nations" according to GNP, rank very high by the HDI.

There has been dualistic development in our country, with the difference between the rich and the poor growing day by day. The rich gets richer, while the poor gets poorer! The per capita income of the country has increased, but it is because today, some multinational companies do pay its top executives a salary as high as 1 crore rupees per annum.

Do see this link, http://www.hindu.com/2004/07/25/stories/2004072503141000.htm and you would realize how wrong the elite group of our society, in which all people(incuding me) who read your blog belong to, is when we claim that India is developing. By the HDI, India is still a LDC.

I would have been really proud of being an Indian had the economic development of our country benefited these people too. The only thing I know is that I am very lucky that I do not belong to that group which does not even have food to eat, despite the fact that Indian godowns are full of wheat, rice.

I wish Hyderabad, Bangalore could represent the whole country. But unfortunately, it doesn't.

Anyways, Jai Hind!

10:03 PM

 
Blogger Priyendra said...

Well, my post was never to suggest that all's well with our country. It was a reminder that amidst all the things that are wrong, there are also some very wonderful things we have achieved - and these things deserve to be appreciated.

I agree that the rich have benefited more from development, but it would be wrong to say that the poor have become poorer. Consider the following facts I recently learned from articles in the current issue of India Today: sixteen years ago, one in every two Indians was illiterate - today only one in four is. Sixteen years ago, average income for Indians was Rs. 4,000 p.a. which has risen to around 21,000 p.a. today. Sizteen years ago 40% of Indians were below the poverty line compared to 25% today. Number of villages with electricity has almost doubled. Communication facilities are slowly but surely reaching the remotest parts of India. True, the job isn't finished yet, but I feel that the general direction we are on is correct. If estimates are anything to go by, we shall have only around 10% people below the poverty line by 2020. If you ask me, even 10% is too high a number, but is it not far far better than 25%?

The link you provided was indeed very touching and heart-breaking. However, the point is - are such cases reducing in number? The above statistics seem to support that fact that they indeed are. And I feel that is what is more important. We are not there yet, but we shall get there for sure.

11:07 PM

 
Blogger Priyendra said...

By the way, do we know each other??

11:08 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Suppose in a family, there are 4 people, and only one person earns, say around 2 lakh per annum. What is the per capita income(in economics, defined as GNP/population) of this family. Rs. 50,000 per annum, even though only a single member earns. Similarly, in India, after globalization, a class has appeared, which earns like hell. So the per capita income doesn't represent the true scenario of the country as it fails to reflect the structure and distribution of income.
About the percentage of people below the poverty line, I cannot say much. But I will be sending a question that was asked to Professor Amartya Sen and his reply.

--------------------------------------------------------
PGT: If we look at the figures of poverty, until recently the government was claiming that barely 2.5% of the population was below the poverty line. Now they have changed the definition of the poverty line, and now the Planning Commission says that roughly 35% of the country's population is below the poverty line. But this has been a declining trend, considering that using the same yardstick, in the 60s perhaps half the country's population was below the poverty line. So is this an insignificant achievement, or could we have done much, much more?

AKS: Well I think that in judging it in terms of people's income, it is an achievement of some magnitude, and not to be dismissed. But I think the real thing to ask is how do we judge poverty and deprivation. You see, income is one of the means through which we satisfy our aims in life, namely getting the means of survival, good nourishment, being free from avoidable illnesses, living long, et cetera. Now judged in that perspective, the proportion of people who are... in the broader perspective, the proportion of people who are deprived, is of course very much larger. Now you mentioned 30% of the people have income below the poverty line. Now we know 50% of the Indian population are illiterate, we know that two-thirds of the women are illiterate. Now these are deprivations too, it is poverty of some kind, may not be of the income kind. And similarly, if we go by health conditions, there are a massive number who are deprived. For example, if you go by undernourishment, measured by various anthropometric criteria, and various things like weight for age, and height for age, and so on, India, and South Asia generally, has a higher rate of deprivations than any other region of the world, much higher than the rest of Asia, of course, but higher even than sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa has lower extent of child undernourishment measured by these criteria, than India has. So, if you are looking at the lives that human beings are able to lead, and the deprivations that visit us, the deprivation and poverty are indeed very much closer, so that the point that I argued earlier, namely the need to focus on humanity rather than on some means like income, which is another one like other instrumentalities we were discussing earlier. Charts have the effect of making us overlook the extent of deprivation that we happen to have. Now, it is not the case that we haven't changed, I mean, after all, when the British left, the percentage of people who were literate was very much lower, 20% or below, and now it is 50% or higher. But you know, at the time of Independence, or just before Independence, if you asked me how long will India take to have universal literacy, the answer would have been, well, it will be very soon, and there was a scheme, I remember, the Sergeant Scheme, put forward in 1940, which would make India literate in 40 years, and the nationalist leaders rightly laughed it out of court, on the grounds that India did not have the patience to remain for 40 years without Universal Literacy. Now 50 years have gone by, and the country is still half illiterate, two-thirds of the women are illiterate! All these deprivations! In any case, what we have to look at is first of all, the extent of deprivation in human life, and not just in terms of income, and secondly, not just in that things are moving forward, which they are pretty much everywhere, ?? happens to be that that's the case, but adequately fast, and I don't think it is at all. I think the situation, in every respect, in education, health care and even in income deprivation, we could have made a bigger dent on poverty then we actually have done, and so I think there is a story of very great concern here.

--------------------------------------------------------

I do not say India has not progressed. But it is the dualistic development which makes me feel sad. Btw we are still a LDC according to HDI (India ranks 127th in the world).

In the end, yes we do know each other.

7:05 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"When a mighty tree falls, the earth around is bound to shake"

Somebody (I think it was khushwant singh), said in response that "He's a kid, he doesn't know that when the earth shakes, trees fall" or something to that effect :D

11:14 AM

 
Blogger Priyendra said...

See, you yourself said that India has progressed. Now there are still people who sleep with hungry stomachs and my heart goes out to them. But the fact that I am sad for them does not mean that I should not be happy about the guy who has progressed and now earns Rs. 1 crore! We are a big country and it sure will take time for benefits to reach everyone. As fellow Indians, we should feel happy for the guys who have progressed and keep working for the guys who haven't.

In any case, I am no economist and so I do not understand Amartya Sen's complex analyses. But what I do understand is that when people start earning more, when lesser number of people are below the poverty line, when infant mortality rates come down, when literacy increases, when more and more households have access to water supplies, when the number of rural dispensaries increases, when more and more villages get access to electricity, then it means that there has been undeniable development.

By the way, all the above stats are substantiated by the GoI's Economic Survey 2003-2004.

2:26 PM

 
Blogger Priyendra said...

And yeah, about the question of whether the pace of these developments is "adequate" - well, maybe it isn't. Maybe our politicians screwed up. But are you sure if Dr. Amartya Sen was given the task, he would have done any better? And if the answer is yes, then exactly how much better? These are questions which critics never answer! I feel it is quite easy to crib about development being slow and all. It is also very fashionable to point out we lag behind sub-Saharan Africa in HDI. But do those countries have people speaking 18 different languages? Do those countries have a population of a billion? Do those countries have a landmass as huge as India's? Do they have separatist movements in all corners of the country? According to me, there is a huge difference in scale of the problems faced by these smallish countries and the problems India faces and consequently their development rates and all can simply not be compared.

2:47 PM

 
Blogger Opasna said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

12:42 PM

 
Blogger Opasna said...

A nice discussion going on here!

Priyendra no one can say that India has not progressed and feeling proud about it is a good thing. But as pointed by our anon friend, it is in fact very easy for you and me to be feel proud about our nation. I wouldn't definitely be proud and compassionate about the state of affairs if I were a beggar, a starving poor farmer in some part of India, someone who saw half his/her family die in terrorism/riots,..the list is endless....

Given the great economic progression started by Dr. Manmohan Singh's initiated reforms and the much seen results during the last 4 years, it was a shock to a lot of people that the ruling government was thrown out of its chair...Even if we consider that within such a large country, democractic shift in government is not a key indicator of the peoples resentment what with mass poll rigging and such, lets look at a smaller case in point...

What happenned in Andhra Pradesh, why was the ruling party since 10 years TDP rudely kicked out while we were all very pleased with Chandrababu Naidu's e-governance and work to bring in foreign investment and employment in Hyderabad...Kudos to the guy...But point to be noted is that too much attention was paid to bring in development and money in the state..How about using the money first for development in the villages rather than new hi-tech gizmos for all the ministries? I sincerely feel that the resentment of the poor people in AP was valid and brings out a strong point that government schemes and development efforts should be aimed for upliftment of the economically deprived uneducated folks of our country not for raising the standard of living of the 1000s like us with INR 30k-70k per month salary figures..

I don't have a keen interest or understanding of politics or economics, yet I agree on some points with Dr. Amartya Sen..Yes you can say if he were in power how would he do it, its easier to criticize..The fact remains that the politicians in India are faced with a long list of priortized problems and then they have their own priortized lists for their career progression..Most definitely the problems that are tackled first in India are those that would lend the most political clout and hence are a subset of these 2 lists...Any minority in India which does not have political clout is left to rot with their problems rolling on files for decaded w/o any action....

I don't like to use this example but its one of the best examples:

The very small community of non-violent Kashmiri Pandits with no political party per se wanting to take up their cause because obviously they are worth a very few votes...For the same reason the World or UN doesn't see this issue as important either...

Most of them are still wailing in camps or 1 room homes in Jammu...The one good policy I saw for them over the last 15 years was admission quota in the colleges of Maharashtra..Apart from that nothing was done to help them..Leave apart announcing some financial grants to setup new homes, businesses etc. most of the KPs were not even helped in legally getting their own assets back from banks in Kashmir...As a bulk of the community was educated most of them settled in any part of India where they found a job..What about those who were not educated, or had their own businesses..These guys were made into paupers from a decent life in Kashmir...Till date no reforms in the form of low interest loans or subsidized land or even promised money owing to deaths in the family has been granted to some of them...And its been 15 years since they became "refugees" in their own country..

Please don't challenge me on this one...Or be ready for an emotional outburst

http://ikashmir.org/Refugees/index.html
http://www.panunkashmir.org/index.html

To conclude, this is where we need a lot of improvement..Politicians will be politicians...I say let them be legally corrupted and earn billions but at least they should be objective and take some actions for the sake of the people of India that don't necessarily benefit them in their selfish political agenda...This is very important because differential treatment of people is what breeds revolts, terorrism, what not....

Let there be no partial/prejudiced progression in the country and then development effects will trickle down the economic layers to the poorest who will become poorer and the poorer will become poor and the poor will rise to lower-middle class....

Born Indian ! Die Indian !
(Say no to Green Card) :)

12:43 PM

 
Blogger Priyendra said...

Well, I shall surely not challenge you on the Kashmiri Pandit thing. I myself have, at multiple occasions, discussed with my friends the insensitivity the political class has shown towards the plight of the Kashmiri Hindus and I fully agree with you on that issue.

4:26 PM

 

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